#### Evseev V.O.

### MANAGERIAL DECISION AS A REGULATOR OF CHARACTER INTERACTIONS IN THE ECOSYSTEM

**UDC 338.24.01**

DOI: http://doi.org/10.15350/2409-7616.2023.4.33

**Evseev V.O.**^{1,2} (Moscow, Russian Federation) – manrus@mail.ru

^{1}RANEPA

^{2}Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

**Abstract. *** Representation of the problem*.

**The first goal of this work is to show the relationship between the coefficient of natural population growth (CAP) and the following indicators on the example of international statistics: the effectiveness of public administration and the effectiveness of environmental policy. The second goal of the work is to build a simulation model that includes three main factors affecting the change in population size – environmental pollution, population density by control solutions. The third goal is to build a regression equation based on simulation statistics to calculate the population correction factor.**

__Methodology.__Methods of correlation and regression analysis, methods of simulation modeling, methods of system analysis, methods of computational mathematics, methods of logico-structural analysis, methods of graphical and tabular analysis were used.

__Results.__Regression equations between the efficiency of public administration and natural population growth were obtained, and equations with the number of bankrupt enterprises were also obtained. The relationship between the effectiveness of environmental policy and the population’s CEP is complex and nonlinear, which is explained both by the stages of development of the states under consideration and by the attitude to environmental policy. A simulation model of the ecosystem was built and experiments were carried out on it, the results are presented in the form of corresponding graphs. Based on the experimental data obtained, a regression-correlation relationship was developed between the population correction factor and the factors included in the ecosystem model.

__Conclusions.__The main conclusion is that control decisions, in a certain sense, should be considered as independent populations, there should be digital models of these populations in order to determine the conditions of their positive or negative impact on the remaining elements of the ecosystem

**Keywords:** simulation modeling, ecosystem, population, natural growth rate, management decisions, public administration efficiency, model experiments, formula of the population change correction factor, Excel.

**References:**

- Avdeev Yu.M., Filipova E.E. The use of mathematical modeling methods in the study of biological objects.
*Postulate*, 2018, no. 10 (36), p. 11. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=36734492 - Baklushinsky V.V. Theoretical aspects of decision-making in conditions of risk and uncertainty.
*Bulletin of the Belgorod State Technological University named after V.G. Shukhov*, 2016, no. 9, pp. 261-266. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=26674797 - Belotelov N.V. On possible directions of development of mathematical ecology.
*Russian Journal of Ecosystem Ecology*, 2018, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 1-10. (In Russian). EDN: VPVDOU, DOI: 10.21685/2500-0578-2018-4-1 - Vakushin A.A., Klebanov B.I. Comparative analysis of MATLAB.STATEFLOW / SIMULINK and ANYDYNAMICS packages for building simulation models of social systems.
*Modern high-tech technologies*, 2021, no. 7, pp. 18-23. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=46410744 - Koryakov A.E. Shishkina A.A., Shishkina P.A., Mathematical modeling of ecosystems: equations and problems.
*Proceedings of Tula State University. Technical sciences*, 2019, no. 9, pp. 355-358. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=41562081 - Lankin Yu.P., Baskanova T.F., Pechurkin N.S. Modeling of adaptive self-organization of ecosystems.
*Modern problems of science and education*, 2012, no. 5, pp. 271. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=18319170 - Miginsky D.S., Timonov V.S. Application of network descriptions of ecosystems for automated construction of simulation models.
*Bulletin of Novosibirsk State University. Series: Information Technology*, 2012, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 55-62. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=17560562 - Petrov Yu.S., Raspopov V.E. Results of computational experiments in mathematical modeling of aquatic ecosystems.
*Bulletin of the Siberian State Aero-Space University named after academician M.F. Reshetnev*, 2010, no. 1 (27), pp. 29-34. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=15204721 - Surkov F.A. Explicable artificial intelligence: when and how it will defeat mathematical modeling in solving practical problems of natural ecosystems.
*Ecology. Economy. Computer science. Series: System analysis and modeling of economic and ecological systems*, 2022, vol. 1, no. 7, pp. 76-78. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=49856948 - Tsareva M.I., Savina A.G. Mathematical modeling of ecosystems.
*Scientific Notes of ORELGIET*, 2013, no. 1 (7), pp. 322-325. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=24068115 - Sergienko O.V. Cognitive modeling of strategic sustainable socio-economic development of the agricultural sector of the region’s economy.
*The science of man: humanitarian research*, 2023, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 242-250. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=54662525 - Skorobogatykh E.Yu., Mukhina S.N. Adaptation of classical mathematical models of ecological processes to modeling of innovative ecosystems.
*Proceedings of the Baltic State Academy of Fishing Fleet: psychological and pedagogical sciences*, 2022, no. 2 (60), pp. 156-161. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=48753248 - Popov E.V., Simonova V.L., Chelak I.P. Analytical model of the firm ecosystem: comparison of large industrial enterprises in Russia.
*Journal of Applied Economic Research*, 2022, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 775-794. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=49892258 - Ivanov A.K. Modeling of spatial transformation of information resources of management bodies.
*Automation of management processes*, 2019, no. 4 (58), pp. 4-21. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=41802185 - Ivanov A.K., Savkin A.L., Chernyshev I.V. Mathematical models of information solutions in management bodies.
*Automation of management processes*, 2021, no. 1 (63), pp. 56-73. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=45597539 - Kasparson A.A. Assessment of the impact on the population by the resource and predator: a review of methods.
*Journal of General Biology*, 2015, vol. 76, no. 2, pp. 111-125. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=23327267 - Shultz D.N. Behavioral economics and dynamic models of general equality.
*Economic issues*, 2020, no. 1, pp. 47-65. (In Russian). URL: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=42342331

**For citation:** Evseev V.O. Managerial decision as a regulator of character interactions in the ecosystem. CITISE, 2023, no. 4, pp. 355-366. DOI: http://doi.org/10.15350/2409-7616.2023.4.33