ISSN 2409-7616

Evseev V.O.


UDC 338.24.01


Evseev V.O.1,2 (Moscow, Russian Federation) –


2Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

Abstract. Representation of the problem. The first goal of this work is to show the relationship between the coefficient of natural population growth (CAP) and the following indicators on the example of international statistics: the effectiveness of public administration and the effectiveness of environmental policy. The second goal of the work is to build a simulation model that includes three main factors affecting the change in population size – environmental pollution, population density by control solutions. The third goal is to build a regression equation based on simulation statistics to calculate the population correction factor. Methodology. Methods of correlation and regression analysis, methods of simulation modeling, methods of system analysis, methods of computational mathematics, methods of logico-structural analysis, methods of graphical and tabular analysis were used. Results. Regression equations between the efficiency of public administration and natural population growth were obtained, and equations with the number of bankrupt enterprises were also obtained. The relationship between the effectiveness of environmental policy and the population’s CEP is complex and nonlinear, which is explained both by the stages of development of the states under consideration and by the attitude to environmental policy. A simulation model of the ecosystem was built and experiments were carried out on it, the results are presented in the form of corresponding graphs. Based on the experimental data obtained, a regression-correlation relationship was developed between the population correction factor and the factors included in the ecosystem model. Conclusions. The main conclusion is that control decisions, in a certain sense, should be considered as independent populations, there should be digital models of these populations in order to determine the conditions of their positive or negative impact on the remaining elements of the ecosystem

Keywords: simulation modeling, ecosystem, population, natural growth rate, management decisions, public administration efficiency, model experiments, formula of the population change correction factor, Excel.


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For citation: Evseev V.O. Managerial decision as a regulator of character interactions in the ecosystem. CITISE, 2023, no. 4, pp. 355-366. DOI: