Evseev V.O.
AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR ASSESSING THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE RISKS OF THE PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION PROCESS
УДК330.16
Evseev V.O.1,2 (Moscow, Russian Federation) – manrus@mail.ru
1RANEPA
2Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
Abstract. The problems raised and considered in the article are largely related to the knowledge management system, the importance of which is increasing in the public administration system, as a system in which competitive management solutions should be formed and implemented. In many government strategic documents, due to the corresponding types of risks, we see three possible options for achieving results: pessimistic, optimistic and rational. In such critical management conditions, the lack of information is largely replaced by the practical experience of managers and their expert assessments of the likely characteristics of possible risks. The knowledge management system is widely used in the field of public administration, especially in Western countries and companies. The instrumental part of the knowledge management system is expert systems that accumulate the knowledge and practical experience of specialists and, as a result of complex algorithmic calculations, the total value of risks is given, as well as possible consequences and recommendations for its reduction. Methodological apparatus. An expert risk Impact Assessment system was built, which included the following management system factors: 1. Factors of the management system; 2. Conflict factors; 3. Intergroup factors; 4. Social factors; 5. Legislative factors; 6. Factors of radicalization of power; 7. Factors of competition; 8. Factors of decentralization; 9. Factors of social tension; 10. Factors of discipline. The risks for all the listed factors were described by their own system of indicators. Results. Based on the results of simulation modeling, changes in the level of risks are calculated throughout the period of public administration, both for individual elements and as a whole. For each level of risk, information is provided on possible consequences, and recommendations are also given on reducing the level of risk and reducing damage from its consequences. Conclusions. The necessity of creating a knowledge management system and developing its instrumental component, the Expert System of Public Administration, is confirmed.
Keywords: public administration, risks of public administration, knowledge management, expert systems, consequences of the occurrence of risks, recommendations for risk management.
References:
- Bakhvalov S.V., Arshinsky L.V. Features of the application of the technology of expert systems to assess the quality of specialist training. The Transport Infrastructure of the Siberian region, 2014, vol. 1, pp. 458-462. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/sjkzhp
- Bolshedvorskaya L.G., Koryagin N.D. Development of a mechanism for evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of the use of expert systems. Crede Experto: Transport, Society, Education, Language, 2021, no. 3, pp. 6-13. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/upfmui
- Voevodina E.I., Naumov D.V. Expert systems: the field of application and classification. Electronic Scientific Journal, 2016, no. 8 (11), pp. 166-169. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/wkught
- Gorshkov E.A., Pavkina N.N. Application of expert systems in management documentation. Current Problems of Our Time: Science and Society, 2021, no. 1 (30), pp. 5-8. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/qlggur
- Evseev V.O., Osadchaya G.I., Seleznev I.A. Application of expert systems for assessment of integration processes. CITISE, 2019, no. 2 (19), pp. 16. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/nhaxqh
- Evseev V.O. Methodology of application of expert systems for the analysis of regional conflicts. CITISE, 2021, no. 3 (29), pp. 65-78. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/umtxwh
- Kosnikov S.N., Zolkin A.L., Ataeva L.B. et al. Features of expert decision support systems and their application in economics. Natural Sciences and Humanities, 2023, no. 5 (49), pp. 160-163. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/ojyhma
- Lezhnina M.V. Expert systems in support of decision-making. Actual Problems of The Economy of Modern Russia, 2016, no. 3., pp. 37-41. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/wdcbnn
- Lisova E.V., Koltakova T.V., Lipinsky A.V. The use of expert systems in practice. Bulletin of the Voronezh Institute of High Technologies, 2017, no. 2 (21), pp. 90-92. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/zatcot
- Matveev A.V., Shabanov R.M., Dedova E.B. et al. Creation of an expert system using geoinformation and web technologies to improve the organization of management of the reclamation and water management complex. Rural Mechanizer, 2024, no. 2, pp. 34-36. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/altnad
- Pikalov I.Yu. Application of simulation modeling and expert systems in economic analysis. Auditorium, 2014, no. 4 (4), pp. 93-95. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/rgdavz
- Solod S.A., The use of expert systems in the occupational safety management system at the enterprise. Emergencies: Industrial and Environmental Safety, 2014, no. 1 (17), pp. 81-89. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/rwzefv
- Sukhareva M.A., Vinichenko M.V. Building expert systems using artificial intelligence technologies as a management decision support system. A new generation, 2019, no. 20, pp. 77-83. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/bhyxzq
- Selivonin A.E. Review of expert systems and their application in various fields. Bulletin of the Russian New University. Series: Complex Systems: Models, Analysis and Management, 2023, no. 1, pp. 50-60. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/xafyqc
- Taroyants L.A., Bondar K.A., Kozyreva A.A. Expert systems, their application for solving problems of various subject areas. Forum of Young Scientists, 2019, no. 1-3 (29), pp. 569-572. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/xafyqc
- Farshatov G.K., Bugakov P.Yu. Analysis of the application of expert systems in the training of specialists in the field of information technologies based on SGUGIT. Interexpo Geo-Siberia, 2023, vol. 6, pp. 257-262. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/hiiptg
- Shigina A.A. Application of expert system technology in the construction of intelligent decision support systems. Scientific and methodological electronic journal “Concept”, 2014, no. 20, pp. 3566-3570. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/sjezvh
- Shafigullin I.Sh., Plekhanov Yu.L. Features of the applied solution of anti-crisis management problems in the field of analysis of weakly structured data when using expert systems. Bulletin of the Russian New University. Series: Complex Systems: Models, Analysis and Management, 2020, no. 4, pp. 72-76. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/mvuyuk
- Yannikov I.M., Telegina M.V., Guschina D.A. The use of an expert system to determine the level of psychological fitness to work in risk-oriented positions. Intelligent Systems in Production, 2019, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 93-99. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/leytlx
- Yavurik V.V., Maryasova E.A. The use of an expert system as a tool to support management decision-making. Science Alley, 2023, vol. 1, no. 5 (80), pp. 392-397. (In Russian). URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/zpypjz
For citation: Evseev V.O. An expert system for assessing the consequences of the risks of the public administration process. CITISE, 2024, no. 3, pp. 548-560.