N. Mashkina, V. Grishina
EVALUATION OF THE LOAN LEVEL OF POPULATION OF RUSSIA
Natalya A. Mashkina – PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Department of Finance and Credit, Southwestern State University, Kursk, Russian Federation, RSCI SPIN code: 4702-4436, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Valeria V. Grishina – Student of the department of economics, management and audit, Southwestern State University, Kursk, Russian Federation, E-mail: email@example.com
Abstract. The article is devoted to the consideration of such a phenomenon as the debt load of the country’s population on the example of Russia. The term “debt” means the ratio between debt obligations and available income. Assessing the level of debt or, in other words, the debt burden of Russian citizens is relevant, because real disposable incomes have a rather long downward trend, and consumer unsecured lending is becoming more affordable, the amount of debt to Russians to creditors is increasing year by year, while the share of overdue liabilities, although not very large, still poses certain risks. This situation increases the level of debt to citizens, which poses serious challenges for the socio-economic development of the state, since excessive debt burden can lead to a crisis (as, for example, in the USA in 2008). Therefore, it is especially important to soberly assess the level of debt load and take appropriate measures in time to regulate it, in particular, to cool the consumer lending market as the most volatile segment of lending to individuals. The aim of the study is to study the concept of “borrowing of the population” and assess its level in the structural-dynamic aspect. During the study, comparison methods and economic and statistical methods were used. The tasks of the work are to determine the debt level of Russian citizens by considering the reasons for the change in the debt burden of the population, as well as to develop provisions that contribute to its reduction. The methodology of the work is to use the dialectical method of cognition and a systematic approach, the synthesis and generalization of logical modeling, as well as the mathematical-statistical method. The result of the work was a study of the debt level of the Russian population. Also, the work examined the dynamics of incomes of Russian citizens, in particular those that are actually disposable. We paid special attention to the study of the volume of accounts payable of the population, as well as its structure. The situation in the market of microfinance organizations was also considered. An important aspect of this work was a review of innovations in legislation relating to the regulation of the debt burden of the population. The main conclusion of the work was the conclusion that currently the debt load on the population of the Russian Federation is at a satisfactory level, however, under the existing conditions of the continuing decline in real disposable incomes and the growth of consumer and microfinance lending segments, the situation may get out of control. To avoid this, the Bank of Russia in October 2019 introduced a mandatory calculation of the debt burden indicator. But so far this measure is not perfect, since large banks have previously taken into account PD when deciding on the approval of a loan. However, according to experts in the banking industry, even such innovations can to some extent improve the situation in the field of consumer lending as early as 2020.
Keywords: population debt, bank loans, lending to individuals, mortgage lending, microloans, microfinance organizations.
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Mashkina N.A., Grishina V.V. Evaluation of the loan level of population of Russia. CITISE, 2020, no. 2, pp. 246-257. DOI: http://doi.org/10.15350/2409-7616.2020.2.23