UDC 338.22:021.4

Evseev V.O.¹ (Moscow, Russian Federation) – manrus@mail.ru

¹RANEPA

Abstract. The problems raised and discussed in the article are related to the amount of knowledge that graduates should have about their subject area in order to make constructive decisions. The subject area is characterized by more than fifteen indicators, which are interconnected by complex causal relationships, for the analysis of which the graduate must have a well-developed analytical function. Methodological framework. To study the process of acquiring knowledge, a formula for spreading innovation was used; A simulation model was built to obtain probabilistic characteristics of the decisions made; regression and correlation analysis were used; numerical mathematics methods. The following indicators were set in the model: the level of readiness of applicants and students to solve thematic problems; the level of correspondence of the studied disciplines to the content of practical activity; the level of mobilization, interest, determination of students; the level of students’ understanding of their place and their prospects in the future profession. Results. The output results of the simulation were: the timing/ time of obtaining and mastering the required amount of knowledge; the dominant probability of making appropriate decisions in the learning process, depending on the above-listed factors / indicators. Conclusions. The dependence between the probability of a particular type of decision on the characteristics of the student (synergy), the organization of the educational process (emergence) and the willingness of the external environment to accept the graduate (entropy) is confirmed. It also confirms the need to create and implement new educational technologies in which information is transformed into knowledge. The existing educational standards poorly disclose the essential content of the subject areas, which in turn does not form a competitive mindset among graduates, this primarily applies to graduates who have chosen the humanities, political and economic fields of activity.

Keywords: knowledge, students, educational process, types of solutions, simulation modeling, probability, expert systems.

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For citation: Evseev V.O. Modeling the influence of learning process factors on the probabilistic characteristics of decisions made in students. CITISE, 2025, no. 1, pp. 490-504.