ISSN 2409-7616

Polunina L.N.



UDC 37.014

Polunina L.N.1 (Tula, Russian Federation) – E-mail:

1Tula State Lev Tolstoy Pedagogical University

Abstract. During 2020 and 2021, the leading international organizations have registered serious effects of continuing global pandemic in all social spheres including education. The unprecedented destabilization faced by national education systems and the uncertainty of forecasting prove the development of systemic crisis of education. The aim of this paper is to reveal the specifics of education transformation under crisis conditions, to analyze the key influence factors and to represent a scenario of education development in a new reality. The present research uses the system approach to the investigation of the behavior of social systems under uncertainty and is oriented towards interdisciplinary integration. The study allowed defining the emergency transformation of education as an acute systemic reaction to an extreme situation and at the same time an attempt to overcome it in which the system’s internal processes of self-organization play the leading role. Based on PEST-analysis, a scenario of education development under crisis conditions might be explicated as a sequence of the following stages: shock – adaptation – recovery. Due to chaotization of both external and internal systemic connections, the period of initial shock is characterized by the most negative consequences: the disruption of education process, learning loss, the breach of a habitual way of communicative interaction because of transition to remote learning, growing social tensions. In the adaptive phase, the system’s behavior is gradually becoming normal and the main indicators of the transformation are the integration of management through the consolidation of formal and informal leaders, the improvement of communication mechanisms, the evaluation and dissemination of efficient education practices, the development of digital infrastructure, strengthening social solidarity. The third stage presupposes a complete recovery of the system’s functions and a purposeful enhancement of its resilience under the conditions of ‘new normal’ determined by a cyclical course of the crisis.

Ключевые слова: education as a complex social system, pandemic, crisis, uncertainty, emergency transformation, emergence, new normal.


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For citation:

Polunina L.N. Emergency transformation of education under uncertainty: pandemic risks and a scenario of development. CITISE, 2021, no. 3, pp.291-305. DOI: