MODERN THEORY OF LEADING COMPOSITE INDEXES IN THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND THE ECONOMIC GROWTH CYCLE
Natalia A. Nevskaya – Candidate of economics sciences, associate professor, leading researcher of the department of economic research Institute of Europe of RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation, ORCID:0000-0002-2344-0549, E-mail: email@example.com
Abstract. The subject and purpose of the article. The article describe the transformation of the indexes economic theory about calculations of leading composite indexes based on the business cycle and growth cycle data of economies of developed countries. The aim of the article is to consider the main approaches to the formation of tools for assessing business cycle and growth cycle based on a modern theory of economics and a mathematical method. Methods and methodology. The work uses a system method, analysis and synthesis. The article presents a retrospective analysis to the combination of component indicators to the composite indexes and methods for converting them into leading and coincident indexes. Results. The article discusses the main types of indexes currently used in developed Western countries, provides an overview of approaches to the formation of leading and coincident indexes, and examines the dynamics of the main leading indexes in developed countries. Based on the experience of large corporations assessing the dynamics of the business cycle, the main types of composite leading indexes were identified and real estimated indicators in conjunction with the territory were considered, in particular, the Eurozone was taken for consideration. The evolution of approaches to the formation of indexes and the inclusion of a number of indicators in the assessment is considered. Application area. The paper considers the use of index indicators in the framework of the global assessment of the economic situation and a regional assessment for a number of parameters. Conclusions. The system of leading indexes has a deep study at the level of economic theory and mathematical methods. The analysis of composite leading indexes and indicators wish the assessment suggested say that applicability of this system should be tuned to certain territorial and economic conditions of management. The main indicators forming the index with the basic values should be added a domestic factors makes the development of the economy of the region and the country.
Keywords: economic indicators, coincident indicators, leading indicators, composite indicators, Gross domestic product (GDP), EU country.
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