DOI: http://doi.org/10.15350/2409-7616.2021.3.06

UDC 330.131.7: 330.4:331.109.38

Evseev V.O.¹ (Moscow, Russian Federation) – E-mail: manrus@mail.ru

¹Russian University of Economics. G. V. Plekhanov

Abstract. The main issue of the study is to expand the capabilities of the methods for analyzing regional conflicts using the proposed potential of expert systems. Expert systems consist of a database, a knowledge base, and a database of decision rules and conclusions, so information about regional conflicts should be reformed to fit the concepts that are embedded in expert systems. Also in the proposed methodology, the results obtained from expert systems are the input information for the simulation model of conflict situations. Also, the purpose of the presented work was to draw up rules for the use of the selected factors in the expert system. The essence of the rules was to draw up a system of cause-and-effect relationships between factors and dominant concepts chosen to assess the level of regional conflict. The aim of the work was not only to develop and compile an expert system, but also to adjust it to the sensitivity in the range of expected expert responses. Results. The results of the work of the expert system are output data in the form of tabular, graphical and textual information that reflects the level of danger of a regional conflict, the probability of its occurrence, and its probable duration. Conclusions: The development of an expert system expands logical and probabilistic thinking, develops a system of cause-and-effect relationships, which makes it possible to separate knowledge from information in the analysis of regional conflicts. The depth of functional relationships in expert systems depends on the types of knowledge that form the database and cause-and-effect relationships.

Keywords: regional conflicts, probability of conflict, conflict incident, duration of conflict, area of conflict spread, expert systems, simulation model.

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For citation:

Evseev V.O. Methodology application of expert systems for the analysis of regional conflicts. CITISE, 2021, no. 3, pp.65-78. DOI: http://doi.org/10.15350/2409-7616.2021.3.06