UDC 330.16

Evseev V.O.¹ (Moscow, Russian Federation) – evseev-vo@ranepa.ru; Evseev O.S.² (Moscow, Russian Federation) -oleg.evseev@gmail.com

¹RANEPA

²Sberbank of Russia

Abstract. Risk assessment in the management system is one of the most important areas of research, because it is in the management system that management decisions and management actions are formed, and the mechanism for achieving the goal is implemented. In this article, the authors have expanded their understanding of the sources of risk and believe that the entire contour of the management system can be a source of risk and therefore should be investigated in its entirety. Methodological framework. A simulation model of the control system contour was built, which includes the following elements included in the control system: 1) the control object; 2) information base about the management object; 3) methods of information analysis; 4) methods of planning and forecasting; 5) assessment of deviations from trajectories; 6) tasks and problems of types of decision-making; 7) selection of control actions; 8) delegation of authority; 9) creation of insurance resources; 10) control of execution; 11) monitoring the situation; 12) the trajectory of the management object development. For each of the elements, risks were generated in the range from 1 to 10 (10 is a high level of risk). Results. Based on the results of the simulation, the probabilities of the effectiveness of risk management decisions at different levels of competence were obtained. Histograms of the percentage dominance of the obtained probabilities were constructed. Conclusions. In this paper, for the first time, the risks across the entire office of the management system are considered. The considered simulation model is also suitable for a discipline called pattern recognition. Based on this work, it can be said that the next stage in the development of artificial intelligence will be the stage of assessing the adequacy of the description of the management object, assessing the adequacy of the risk level across the entire office of the management system, and selecting the level of necessary reserve as a prerequisite for improving the effectiveness of decisions.

Keywords: simulation model, risks of the control contour, professional competencies, pattern recognition, artificial intelligence, decision-making, probability dominance histogram.

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For citation: Evseev V.O., Evseev O.S. Simulation model of risk assessment of the management system in the context of a competent approach. CITISE, 2025, no. 4, pp. 792-803.