UDC 37:303.444:303.733.32

Neborsky E.V.¹ (Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation) neborsky_ev@mininuniver.ru, neborskiy@list.ru

¹Nizhny Novgorod State Pedagogical University named after Kozma Minin

Abstract. The article substantiates at the theoretical level the possibilities of using the trends in education development as a basis for forecasting educational practices, which will allow us to approach the issue in the field of predictive research from the standpoint of analyzing short-term and long-term changes directly related to the education system, the learning process and its essential basis, which concerns not so much the “external” socio-economic aspects as the “internal”, pedagogical ones. The author’s model of five factors of organizing the educational process is proposed, with the help of which it is possible to directly analyze the trends in education development, including the following elements: format (how?), tools (with the help of what?), goal (why?), content (what?) and participants (who?). The following sequence of research actions is defined as the analysis algorithm: 1) source selection; 2) “filter” analysis; 3) grouping; 4) data analysis; 5) data combination and model construction; 6) determination of potential and risks; 7) forecasting. Using the example of the trend “learning in dialogue with generative AI”, an algorithm for analyzing essential changes and forming a predictive model is demonstrated.

Keywords: prognostic approach, prognostic research, prognostic research in pedagogical science, futurology of education, methodology of pedagogical forecasting, analysis of trends, trends in the development of education.  

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For citation: Neborsky E.V. Educational development trends as a basis for forecasting educational practices. CITISE, 2025, no. 3, pp. 627-640.