UDC 330.16

Evseev V.O.^1,2 (Moscow, Russian Federation) – manrus@mail. ru

¹RANEPA

²Plekhanov Russian University of Economics

Abstract. The study of the causes and results of the clash of macroeconomic interests belongs to the priority and relevant areas of world research. The formation of national economies and the struggle for national sovereignty are inextricably linked with the clash of interests between developing countries and countries that previously established their own rules of international relations and which give them unilateral international preferences. Analytical centers have been established in many countries to study and predict phenomena and processes that lead to international clashes, and to their highest stage – international conflicts. The purpose of this work is to build a model of the conflict of interests and conduct model experiments based on the study of the importance of the problem of the clash of macroeconomic interests. Methodology. Methods of simulation modeling, methods of system analysis, methods of correlation and regression analysis, methods of computational mathematics, methods of logical and structural analysis, methods of graphical and tabular analysis were used. Results. Regression equations between the frequency of collisions and such factors as intensity, number of participants and volume of claims are obtained, and a nomogram of the number of collisions from these factors is constructed. Based on the obtained equations, a simulation model of macroeconomic collisions was built from 1973 to 2022. The trajectory of conflicts and the number of conflicts/collisions obtained by modeling conceptually coincided with the actual global trajectory of collisions, which suggests the prospects for further development of this direction. Conclusions. The algorithm is based on the formalization of the so-called “Brownian motion”, but nevertheless, the intensity, the volume of claims, the number of participants – all this corresponds to the concept of “macroeconomic interests”. The next stage in the development of the algorithm will be the introduction of new source data: the possibility of creating military-political blocks; the striking power of countries, the goal-setting function and the function of scientific and technological progress are introduced.

Keywords: the clash of macroeconomic interests, simulation modeling, nomogram of the clash of interests, U.S. government debt, Excel.

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For citation: Evseev V.O. The clash of macroeconomic interests: modeling and formalization. CITISE, 2024, no. 2, pp. 353-364.