DOI: http://doi.org/10.15350/24097616.2019.4.28

Evgenia P. Sigareva – Candidate of economics sciences, Head of the Department of Reproduction of the Population of the Institute Socio-Politic Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation, SPIN-код: 3685-5212, ORCID: 0000-0003-3760-795X, E-mail: sigarevae@mail.ru

Iuliia E. Pletneva – Junior Researcher, the Institute of Socio-Political Research under the Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Russian Federation, SPIN-код: 2264-1210, ORCID: 0000-0001-6689-3305, E-mail: julpletneva@yandex.ru

Abstract. The article is devoted to the identification of significant factors characterizing the structural demographic features of the regions of Russia and their influence on the indicators of total fertility rate and crude birth rate. The fact is that the dynamics of the socio-economic development of modern Russia and its future prospects are largely determined by the country’s labor resources. Demographic indicators characterizing the current state of the country today have extremely contradictory trends, to a greater extent – of a negative order. The purpose of the work is to determine the presence and nature of the relationship of the integral index, as well as individual factors with fertility indicators, based on the methods of factor analysis. The results of the factor analysis established the presence and nature of the relationship with a number of indicators analyzed: gender imbalance, average age of the population, the share of women 20-29 years old among all women, the share of the rural population, the share of the Russian population. The most significant factors of the structural features of the regions that determine the differentiation of regional birth rates are identified. This can become the basis for determining priorities when forecasting indicators of total fertility rate and crude birth rate in the context of the national project “Demography”.

 Keywords: Factor analysis, fertility, gender imbalance, average age of the population, rural population, share of the Russian population, total fertility.

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For citation:

Sigareva E.P., Pletneva I.E. Socio-economic problem of Russia: regression analysis of regional differentiation of total fertility rate and crude birth rate. CITISE, 2019, no. 4, pp. 282-294. DOI: http://doi.org/10.15350/24097616.2019.4.28