Electronic scientific journal

V. Evseev

MODELING THE PROBABILITY OF PUBLIC-POLITICAL UPHEAVAL AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

Vadim O. Evseev – The doctor of economic sciences, professor Faculties politics and sociology Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Member of the scientific Council ISPR on the problems of Eurasian integration (Russia, Moscow),  E-mail: manrus@mail.ru

Abstract.  The main issue of the study is the analysis and systematization of factors related to state and political transformations, as well as the analysis of demographic and economic damage associated with coups d’état. The main factors include the level of controlled chaos, centralization of power, the position of the army, the state of civil society and others (eight main factors). The aim of the study was to identify the dependencies between coups and factors causing the creation of prerequisites for coups. Also, the aim of the study was to build a simulation model of state-political revolutions and modeling strategies to create conditions for the implementation of coups. Results. Simulation model of state-political coups is constructed by methods of computational mathematics in Excel software environment. Depending on the type of violence used in a coup d’état, the consequences of violence are determined. The model calculates the probability of a coup. Is given graphic information about the probability of the state treas-Rota for each time step of the simulation. As a practical example, a simulation model of a coup attempt / seizure of power in Venezuela was built. Conclusions: the proposed simulation model allows to play various strategies aimed at the capture of power through the implementation of state-political coups. As the statistics show, as a result of the state-political changes, the economic indicators of the country’s development are sharply reduced and there is a high probability of getting into the scheme of unfavorable credit and financial obligations for the country. Depending on the degree of violence used in the implementation of the coup d’état, the possible consequences corresponding to the type of violence are considered.

Keywords: coup d’état, type of violence, consequences of violence, economic losses, simulation model, factors contributing to the coup d’état, Venezuela.

 

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